With conflicting pressures, grain prices are largely unchanged from June’s close.
The latest AHDB Grain Market Report shows the UK feed wheat futures (Nov-24) at £197.50/t. The May-25 contract stands at £205.35/t.
The outlook for the Russian crop continues to improve but there is still some uncertainty over the final size of the wheat crop, and what this means for global supplies.
Last month, dry conditions in southern parts of the country, as well as frost conditions in more central regions, caused doubt over the development of the crop. As a result, Russian consultancy firm Sovecon revised its wheat production figure to as low as 80.7 Mt. However, more recently, better weather in the key wheat growing regions and improving crop conditions have seen more recent estimates edge back up.
According to USDA data, for the 2023/24 season, Russian wheat exports were estimated to account for 25% of total global wheat exports. As such, any change in the level of exports expected is bound to have some influence on price direction.
However, a lower-than-expected Canadian wheat area and stronger than expected US export sales, offered price support,
Data from Statistics Canada at the end of June revealed Canadian farmers had planted 1.5% less wheat than they had intended in March, supporting global wheat prices.
Canada is the world’s fourth largest exporter of wheat. The planted area is slightly smaller than 2023 so unless yields rise more than currently expected, this could reduce the predicted recovery in Canadian production. A smaller Canadian crop could further tighten global exportable supplies of wheat, depending on harvest results elsewhere.
Positive outlook for oilseeds
Over the same period, Paris rapeseed futures (Nov-24) climbed further from the gains seen at the end of last month. It currently stands at €508.25/t with the May-25 contract slightly higher at €509.25/t.
Paris rapeseed futures have tracked the wider oilseeds complex. US soyabeans were supported by forecasts of hot and dry weather towards the end of July in key soyabean growing regions of the US. Adverse weather at this time of the year could impact soyabean pod setting, and the AHDB advises growers to keep an eye on US weather forecasts.
