As we move into August and Northern Hemisphere harvests now get into full swing the period for weather-related impacts on wheat crops has gone.
Traders are awaiting a clearer picture of harvest 24 volume and quality and as a result, there has been little movement in grain prices.
The latest AHDB Grain Market Report sees the UK feed wheat futures (Nov-24) contract at £191.75/t, a slight fall from last week’s close (26th July). The May-25 contract also dipped over the same period and stands at £201.80/t.
Improving weather over many regions has led to a recovery in crop conditions, particularly in Russia where agricultural consultancy Sovecon again increased its crop forecast from 84.2 Mt to 84.7 Mt. Crops have recovered better than expected following a particularly cold, dry spell in the spring.
Russian wheat continues to price competitively for export, there is some speculation that prices have since reached a floor.
Good weather in the US has also seen good harvest progress, the latest USDA crop progress report stated the US winter wheat harvest had reached 76% completion, ahead of the five-year average.
However, initial harvest results in the UK and across Europe are disappointing and this could provide some support.
Wider oilseeds complex weighing on rapeseed prices
Rapeseed prices also dipped over the same period. Although rapeseed continues to trade at a premium, pressure from the wider oilseeds complex is weighing on rapeseed prices. In the short term, favourable weather has revised US soya bean prospects. Longer-term, ample soya bean supply is likely to exert pressure.
Paris rapeseed futures (Nov-24) are currently at €477.50/t, the May-25 contract at €481.00/t.
