The extent of climate change can be seen from recent research from the James Hutton Institute.
It has revealed that Scotland’s climate has already changed considerably since 1960, beyond that of climate models. Temperatures have increased by more than 1°C, in some parts closer to 2°C. Rainfall, particularly in the west, has increased in November, December and January by more than that projected by climate modelling for the 2020 to 2050 period.
The report suggests rapidly changing background conditions such as increasing temperatures, variable precipitation seasonality and changing ‘climatic water balance’ (the difference between rain in and evaporation out) leading to increasing water scarcity whilst higher temperatures mean a longer growing season, reduced frosts and faster growth stage development.
This increased variability beyond the range experienced in the past, will make management and planning problematic, author Dr Mike Rivington believes.
He says growers can expect more extremes, particularly strong winds and excess rainfall in the winter threatening more floods and higher levels of water deficit due to droughts. Climate change makes this ‘deluge and drought’ scenario more likely annually and even within the same growing season. “My concern is for when we have back-to-back poor years, as this will really stress test the resilience of both our agricultural and natural systems.”
