With the autumn equinox a few days away, balancing pressures are maintaining the support to wheat prices seen at the start of the month.
The current AHDB Grain Market Report shows UK feed wheat futures (Nov-24) at £183.30t, a slight gain on the close of the previous week. The May-25 contract went slightly the other way and stands at £198.00/t.
Some easing of tensions in the Black Sea region has pressured markets but European harvest results and potential weather impacts further afield are proving to be a counterbalance.
FranceAgriMer cut its forecast of French soft wheat exports for the 2024/25 season to 4.0 Mt outside the EU, and 6.0 Mt within the EU. This is down from 7.5 Mt and 6.5 Mt respectively in July’s estimates. The downward revisions are due to the lower-than-expected harvest. Production is now expected down 27% on the year, and one of the worst harvests in the past 40 years.
Despite an upward revision to the Russian wheat by SovEcon, concern remains over recent heavy rains in the Siberian region of Krasnoyarsk, with a state of emergency now declared due to the damage on crops. Earlier this month, Tomsk, another Siberian region, also declared a state of emergency, with almost 3 Kha of crops destroyed.
Out west drought has given way to rain across the US Corn Belt, plentiful rain is due over the region in the coming week. As of 10 September, 18% of the US maize crop (by area) was affected by drought, up from 13% the previous week. However, with much of the crop now maturing and harvest underway, AHDB analysts expect the impact from these conditions is expected to be minimal.
Oilseeds outlook
Rapeseed prices are largely unchanged. Nov-24 Paris rapeseed futures stand at €465.75/t, the May-25 contract at €469.50/t.
European rapeseed markets followed US soya beans, after concerns over hot and dry weather in top producer Brazil. However, gains were limited as Brazilian statistics agency Conab, still forecast the country’s 2024/25 crop at 166.3 Mt, up 12.8% on the year (LSEG).
US-Chinese tensions as tariffs increased
Chinese demand for US maize has eased as of late. In the first eight months of 2024, China imported 12.6 Mt of US maize, down nearly 16% from the same period a year ago.
On Friday, September 13th, the Biden administration confirmed further tariff hikes on Chinese imports, including electric vehicles and steel. This could potentially sour the trading relationship between the two countries, with China reportedly showing little interest in 2024-25 offerings.
