Uncertainties over wheat Russian exports are maintaining grain market support.
The latest AHDB Grain Market Report shows UK feed wheat futures (Nov-24) at £188.50 /t a slight fall from last week’s close. The May-25 contract also slipped slightly and currently stands at £202.55/t.
The support is based on the speculation of possible export controls. The Russian Agricultural Ministry has called for a meeting with the country’s major grain exporters.
Rapeseed prices rebound
The Nov-24 Paris rapeseed futures have had a good week, gaining to stand at €490.25/t, the May-25 contract is currently at €496.75/t.
AHDB analysts believe crude oil prices helped Paris rapeseed futures to rise. The US based WTI crude oil future for Nov-24 increased this week by +3.7% from Friday’s close. The Euro also weakened against a strengthening in the US dollar which also offered some support.
First estimates for English crop production 2024
Defra has released provisional estimates for cereal and oilseed rape production in England for 2024.
Wheat production in England has been provisionally estimated at 10.0 Mt, 22% below last year and down 21% on the five-year average. In comparison to the 2019/20 season, the last notably wetter year, the 2024 harvest is up 15% on the 8.7 Mt harvested in 2020.
Yields are provisionally below the five-year average across all regions, while the average for England was estimated at 7.0 t/ha, below the five-year average of 8.0 t/ha. Production has fallen across all regions, with the greatest fall in the North East (-33%) and the smallest change in the Eastern region (-17%).
40% jump in spring barley production
Overall, total barley production is estimated at 4.9 Mt, 3% above last year’s production, but 7% below the five-year average. As detailed below, production has been supported by a considerable rise in spring barley production given a smaller winter barley crop.
Winter barley production is estimated to fall by 26% on the year to 2.0 Mt, and 18% below than the five-year average of 2.5 Mt.
Regionally, yields are below the five-year average with a particularly significant drop in northern areas, while the average for England is estimated at 6.2 t/ha, 0.8 t/ha less than the five-year average. Production is estimated to fall across all regions, ranging from 40% in the West Midlands and 18% in the South West.
Spring barley production is estimated as the third largest crop since 2000 at 2.9 Mt, up 41% from last year and 3% above the five-year average.
The yield for England is estimated at 5.6 t/ha, just below the five-year average of 5.7 t/ha. Though yields in the southern and eastern regions fared better than average. As a result, for the south of England, production is better than the five-year average.
Oilseed rape (OSR)
Oilseed rape production is down considerably this year at 687 Kt, 33% less than last year and down 38% on the five-year average. This also would be the lowest production since at least 2000, with production impacted by both lower yields and planted area. In August, England’s OSR area was estimated at 250 Kha, the lowest area since 1983.
Only the Eastern region reported a yield above 3.0 t/ha, at 3.1 t/ha. All regions reported a drop in yield in comparison to their respective five-year average. As a result of poor yields and smaller area, production has fallen across all regions.
