With the clocks going back so did wheat prices. The latest AHDB Grain Market Report shows UK feed wheat futures (Nov-24) at £180.00/t and the May-25 contract slipping to £194.05/t.
Traders are waiting for the next USDA US export sales report for further insight on demand, the details should be with traders today, November 1st.
Prices have been pulled down due to favourable weather in Russia and competitive exports from the region. Sovecon raised its October export estimate for Russia by 0.2 Mt to a potential new record of 5.0 Mt, up from 4.7 Mt last year.
However, US crop concerns could offer some support. Earlier this week the USDA released its weekly crop progress report, which included the initial assessment of US winter wheat conditions. As at October 27, only 38% of US winter wheat was rated as good or excellent. This is notably lower than last year’s initial rating of 47% and the five-year average of 43.4%.
The USDA also highlighted slow progress with planting and emergence, both below the five-year average. 27 October. The poorer conditions of the US winter wheat crop are largely caused by a lack of rainfall this year, raising concerns about crop yields for the 2025 harvest. The USDA reported that 58% of the US winter wheat area is experiencing drought, the wheat producing state of Kansas has 70% of its wheat area in drought.
AHDB analyst Gabriel Odiase notes that while these reports offer valuable insights into the 2025 US wheat crop, it is important to remember that the season is only just beginning, with ample time for conditions to change.
Rapeseed gains continue
As suggested in last week’s AHDB Market Report rapeseed could gain further. Nov-24 Paris rapeseed futures rose to €514.00/t, with the contract now closed. The May-25 contract stands at €518.75/t.
European rapeseed futures prices followed crude oil and soyabean futures over the week. With crude oil rising, and likely to rise further, combined with weather concerns for winter rapeseed across much of Europe, support may continue. This could extend into 2025 with the lowest end-of-season stocks for the last two years.
