The first full trading week of the year has seen contrasting fortunes for markets.
The latest AHDB Grain Marketing Report shows UK feed wheat futures (May-25) at £189.80/t yesterday, down close to £3/t from the previous week but the Nov-25 contract was largely unchanged at £193.50/t.
Traders are awaiting the next USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, which is set to be released today. A pre-report poll by Reuters, suggests analysts are expecting an increase in the US 2024/25 ending stocks.
The losses to the wheat futures (May-25) contract are not to the scale of those experienced by Chicago wheat futures. The weakening of sterling against a basket of currencies limited the fall.
Traders are also waiting for updates on Argentina’s ongoing drought, with current forecasts suggesting the situation could get worse. Argentina is the world’s largest exporter of soyabean oil and meal, the third-largest exporter of maize, and a leading supplier of wheat (USDA).
The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange reported that the drought is starting to damage the 2024/25 soyabean and maize crops. Water stress with potential yield losses in southern maize crops, and the area of soyabeans with sufficient water has decreased by 7 percentage points to 81% of the total planted area. However, the Exchange noted that the two main crops are doing well due to adequate moisture from rains in the last months of 2024.
It helped push May-25 Paris rapeseed futures to €525.00/t, a considerably increase from the previous week. The market was also supported by increased export demand, stronger soyabean oil prices, and a relatively weak Canadian dollar.
