As January draws to a close, markets have had another uneventful week.
The latest AHDB Grain Market Report shows grain prices are largely unchanged from seven days previously. Both UK feed wheat futures (May-25) and the Nov-25 contract lost £0.50 to stand at £190.00/t and £195.00/t respectively.
Slight falls at the start of the week were offset by concerns over the condition of some US crops and although rains have arrived in Argentina questions remain about whether it has been sufficient to help maize crops recover.
Senior AHDB analyst Helen Plant expects little change until more is known about US President Trump’s plans. “In his first term, we saw a lot of sudden shifts in position. I suspect we might see more of the same. Whatever Trump says or posts, how it plays out can be another matter. Macro economics will certainly draw traders’ attention,” she says.
If Trump does employ protectionist policies it will undoubtedly hit markets. The International Monetary Fund views protectionist policies as bad for global growth and in the past subdued global output has also subdued grain demand.
However, rapeseed prices have edged down over the same period largely due to concerns over the potential for the US to implement tariffs on imports. Traders have adjusted positions on the possibility that Donald Trump will impose tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada on 1 February.
Paris rapeseed futures (May-25) currently stand at €512 .50/t, down by more than €20.00, the Nov-25 contract saw a modest decline to €484.75/t.
Steady exports mean heavier UK closing stocks
The AHDB has published the latest 2024/25 UK supply and demand estimates for wheat, barley, maize and oats.
Overall, minimal adjustments were made to availability and consumption figures since the last report in November. However, the release included a first look at wheat and barley exports this season. Across all three major UK-grown cereals, 2024/25 exports are forecast well below usual levels.
For wheat, full season exports are forecast at 175 Kt, down 32% on the year, and the lowest since at least the turn of the century. This season to date (Jul-Nov), wheat exports have totalled 51.6 Kt, back 62% on year earlier levels, suggesting that pace will pick up later in the season.
Despite the smaller crop this year leading to a tighter than average balance, the extent of how little wheat will be exported will see particularly high stocks. At the end of the season, a total of 2.708 Mt of wheat is expected to be held in the UK, compared to a five-year average of 2.116 Mt.
Full season exports of barley are expected to reach just 500 Kt in 2024/25, down 36% on the year, and the lowest level of barley exports since 2012/13. From July to November, barley exports reached 189.3 Kt, down 43% compared to the same period last year. Similarly to wheat, while the supply and demand balance is expected to be tighter this season (largely due to increased barley usage in animal feed), the low level of exports leave heavier ending stocks. End-season barley stocks in 2024/25 are estimated at 1.548 Mt, up 27% on the year and well above the five-year average of 1.173 Mt.
For oats, exports are pegged at 50 Kt, down 57% on the year, and the lowest since 2020/21. So far this season (Jul-Nov), just 5.4 Kt of oats have been exported, meaning during the second half of the year, export pace is expected to quicken significantly. Again, although AHDB analysts expect a tighter than average balance, the minimal exports forecast this season, leave ending stocks up 57% on the year at 196 Kt. This is also above the five-year average of 135 Kt.
