The first executive orders from US President Donald Trump have expectedly impacted grain prices.
With tariffs issued against China, Canada and Mexico the latest AHDB Grain Market Report shows grain prices slipping as a result. UK feed wheat futures (May-25) currently stand at £187.25/t the Nov-25 contract at £194.25/t.
However, in true Trump fashion tariffs against Canada and Mexico have been delayed until March.
That helped calm markets. On the announcement of the executive orders, the FTSE 100 share index fell by close to 1.5% as did Germany’s DAX index. Wall Street witnessed a sharper fall, but markets regained some of the losses as news on the tariff pause broke, similar was observed with grain markets.
However, a deal has not been reached with China and, from 3 February, a tariff of 10% on Chinese imports into the US came into effect. China has subsequently imposed different tariffs on some American products
Mixed fortunes for rapeseed
Rapeseed prices experienced mixed fortunes. Paris rapeseed futures (May-25) fell slightly over the same period to €518.00/t. The Nov-25 contract gained slightly and currently stands at €488.75/t.
Rapeseed prices found some support from ongoing weather concerns for South American crops and revisions to EU import forecasts.
Why tariffs matter
Mexico is the largest importer of US maize, purchasing over 30% of US maize annually, while China is a major buyer of US soya beans, accounting for 53% of US exports on average over the past five seasons (USDA).
Meanwhile, Canada dominates global rapeseed production and trade. The country is forecast to account for 43% of global exports in 2024/25 season, along with 53% of rapeseed oil and 60% of rapeseed meal trade (USDA). The US imports 96% of Canada’s rapeseed oil and 66% of its rapeseed meal (Jan–Nov 2024, Canola Council of Canada).
