With some political tensions easing wheat prices are broadly where they were at last week’s close (7th March). However, rapeseed prices slipped further.
The latest AHDB Grain Market Report shows UK feed wheat futures (May-25) up slightly at £175.25/t the new crop contract (Nov-25) also gained a little to £190.25/t.
Prices might have edged a little higher but The USDA’s March WASDE report showed a rise in global wheat ending stocks, driven by higher supplies and reduced global demand. Wheat crop estimates rose by 2.1 Mt in Australia, 0.8 Mt in Argentina and 0.5 Mt in Ukraine, while the global export figure was revised down by 0.9 Mt.
However, it should be noted that the USDA’s report did not take into account trade policy changes. The AHDB suggests that until the full extent of tariffs and counter-tariffs are known, further volatility is expected.
The political unrest has had a greater impact on rapeseed prices. May-25 Paris rapeseed futures stand at €473.50/t, the Nov-25 contract at €463.00/t, both down over the week.
Rapeseed futures are under significant pressure from global tariff concerns and the once wide gap between old and new gap prices has narrowed considerably. In December 2024 it was £46.9/t, although it was fuelled by strong demand and limited EU supply.
The AHDB advises growers to keep an eye on this. New crop Winnipeg canola futures Nov-25 are currently higher than old crop canola futures May-25, so it’s possible that the spread between old crop and new crop Paris rapeseed futures could continue to narrow in the medium term.
One factor that could put pressure on Paris new crop rapeseed futures is the higher forecast EU sunflower production for 2025.
