Improving soya and maize forecasts have put further pressure on grain and oilseed prices.
The latest AHDB Grain Market Report shows a slight fall in prices from the close of the previous week. The UK feed wheat futures (Nov-24) contract stands at £190.35/t. The May-25 contract fell by a similar amount to £201.90/t.
After gains earlier this week, oilseed prices fell back to where they were the previous week. The Paris rapeseed futures (Nov-24) contract is unchanged at €460.00/t. The May-25 contract dipped slightly to €461.50/t.
The reason is a more positive crop outlook following the latest USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), published on Wednesday 14th. It revealed 2024/25 US soyabean production is now expected to reach 124.9 Mt, up from 120.7 Mt last month. This far exceeded the analysts expectations of 121.6 Mt.
Global production among top exporters (incl. Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and the US) is now estimated to be up 9.1% on the year, and 15.9% higher than the five-year average.
As a result of the revision to the US crop, ending stocks of major exporters are now projected to rise to 78.3 Mt, up 26.8% from 2023/24. If realised, these would be the heaviest ending stocks for major exporters since 2018/19.
The USDA also raised its US maize production estimate yesterday by 1.18 Mt to reach 384.7 Mt. This again was above analyst expectations of 383.9 Mt. Despite the rise, increased US exports leaves ending stocks in the US tighter, now at 52.7 Mt, down from 53.3 Mt in July and below the average analyst expectation of 53.24 Mt. Though this remains the largest US ending stock figure in six years.
AHDB analysts believe the revised soyabean and maize forecasts will intensify the current bearish sentiment in the oilseeds market and keep wheat markets neutral at best in the short term.
