As we move through July, it has been another slow week for grain and oilseed markets.
The latest AHDB Market Report has UK feed wheat futures (Nov-24) at £190.90/t and the May-25 contract standing at £201.55/t, a slight fall on the close of the previous week, (12th July).
Paris rapeseed futures (Nov-24) stand at €481.25/t, the May-25 contract is currently at €482.00/t, little change from last week’s close.
Over the last week, prices have generally trended down, largely due to harvest pressure in the northern hemisphere, as well as an increased global wheat supply estimate made by the USDA at the end of last week. However, hot and dry weather in the Black Sea region, as well as a flurry of international tenders have limited losses.
Northern Hemisphere harvest progress
On Monday 15th July, the USDA reported that US winter wheat harvest was 71% complete. This is well ahead of the five-year average of 62% for this point in the season.
Harvest also continues across Russia, with improved weather over the last few weeks Russian agricultural consultancy firm IKAR increased its forecast for the country’s wheat crop to 83.2 Mt, up from its previous estimate of 82 Mt. However, weather in parts of southwestern Russia and eastern Ukraine over the coming days looks more unfavourable for maize crops.
In areas of western Europe however, harvest is progressing more slowly due to wet conditions. FranceAgriMer reported on Friday that just 4% of the soft wheat area had been harvested by last Monday, compared to 26% at the same time a year ago, and the five year-average of 19% for this point in the season. The continued rains and limited sunshine have seen poor winter barley yields in the country so far too.
