Despite the ongoing political uncertainty, grain and oilseed markets fared reasonably well over the last week.
Although UK feed wheat futures (May-25) currently stand where they closed last week at £175.20/t (14th March), the latest AHDB Grain Market Report shows the Nov-25 contract gained by over £4,00/t to sit at £194.85/t.
Rapeseed also gained. May-25 Paris rapeseed futures stand at €486.25/t, the Nov-25 contract up at €468.00/t over the same period.
The discount of wheat old crop UK feed futures (May-25) under new crop (Nov-25) has reached a record level. AHDB senior analyst Helen Plant expects discounts will come in time and is advising growers to keep an eye on things. “We could have ample stock carried through to next year so it will start asking questions on exports.”
The gap between rapeseed old crop and new crop has been narrowing for some time.
Recently, old crop Paris rapeseed futures have been volatile largely due to factors driving the wider global oilseeds complex, with Winnipeg canola being a key driver of prices.
For new crop prices, the key watchpoints are ending stocks for the current 2024/25 season and what to expect from harvest 2025, taking into account the area planted, as well as weather conditions for the new crop.
Again, it is something growers should monitor. Conditions of the new season’s crop, and as such supplies moving forward, will remain a key driver. Over the next few weeks as the Northern Hemisphere crops approach their key development phase, we could see markets start to become more reactive.
