The uncertainty following the US tariffs announcement has unsurprisingly helped push markets lower.
The latest AHDB Grain Market Report shows UK feed wheat futures (May-25) at £164.45/t, falling £3.50/t on the tariff announcement. The Nov-25 contract lost £1.70/t to slip to £184.45/t. May-25 Paris rapeseed futures fell to €518.00/t, after gaining during the week.
US tariffs, along with potential retaliation by trading partners, are likely to impact global trade patterns and could reduce global economic growth.
The International Monetary Fund (IMV) views protectionist policies as bad for global growth and in the past subdued global output has also subdued grain demand. “In periods of weaker economic growth, we see the same with global grain demand,” says senior AHDB analyst Helen Plant.
At the turn of the year, the OECD (Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development) cut its 2025 and 2026 global growth estimates. Interestingly, it also warned that ‘America first’ tariffs will do more harm to the US economy than good.
Business and Trade Secretary Jonathan Reynolds said that a “calm-headed approach” is needed but some world leaders have been more vocal in their criticism.
Political worries aren’t the only negative factor. Sterling reached an almost five-month high against the US dollar, trading yesterday at £1 = $1.3171 (LSEG) due to concerns about how global trade, which is dominated by the US dollar, could be impacted.
