The strength of the vegetable oils complex continues to support rapeseed.
The current AHDB Grain Market Report shows Paris rapeseed futures (May-25) currently stands at €521.25/t up considerably from last week’s close. The Aug-25 contract is at €489.25/t.
With Donald Trump confirmed as the 47th US president it raises the prospect of another trade war with China. During the campaign, Trump suggested that significant tariffs would be imposed on all Chinese imports should he win a second term in the White House.
After a round of tariffs in 2018 tensions eased following the Phase One US-China trade deal. With China agreeing to purchase US soya it supported the oilseeds complex, helping boost rapeseed prices.
The AHDB recommends growers keep an eye on revisions to US trade policy.
Wheat prices slide further
Over the same period, wheat prices went the other way. UK feed wheat futures (Nov-24) stand at £178.80/t, the May-25 contract lost by a similar amount and currently sits at £192.55/t.
Improving winter wheat condition in the US following showers, the strength of sterling and pressure from Paris maize futures are keeping markets squeezed.
At the start of July, the spread between UK feed wheat and Paris maize futures (Mar-25) was £27.16/t, as of 6th November it was £12.14/t. The larger discount of maize to wheat led to stronger UK maize imports in July and August 2024.
Recent GB animal feed production data shows 38.7 Kt of maize was used in September 2024 in animal feed production, 29.4% higher year on year. From July to September 2024, maize usage in GB animal feed production was 102.1 Kt (+25.7% to the same period in the previous year).
Again, the AHDB is advising growers to keep an eye on matters by tracking the price relationship between feed wheat and maize.
