Despite ample soyabean stocks the premium rapeseed holds has increased since markets closed last Friday, 18th October.
Over the week Nov-24 Paris rapeseed futures gained, at one point holding a premium over Chicago soyabeans futures not seen since mid-2022. The latest AHDB Grain Market Report shows Nov-24 Paris rapeseed futures at €509.75/t, the May-25 contract standing at €510.50/t.
And it could get better suggest AHDB analysts.
Lower global production this year is likely to keep rapeseed prices elevated. Both yields and planted areas for rapeseed are expected to be significantly lower in the UK and EU-27, with potentials for further declines. According to the latest USDA estimates, production cuts are projected in the EU (-13%), Ukraine (-24%) and the UK (-28%) compared to last year.
In the short term, further support for rapeseed could come from strong Canadian canola exports. Winnipeg canola was supported through the week with, further support possible following Canada’s recent announcement of a temporary remission of tariffs on certain Chinese imported goods. Increased Chinese purchases of Canadian canola could positively impact rapeseed prices.
Wheat prices dip slightly
Wheat prices slid a little over the same period. UK feed wheat futures (Nov-24) currently stand at £184.05/t. The May-25 contract at £196.80/t.
Despite a climb in Chicago wheat futures, Paris and domestic wheat prices faced pressure from a slower pace of EU exports and uncertainties following Russia’s decision to introduce export regulations.
