The upturn in the Ukraine conflict and the possibility of supply disruption have pushed grain prices up.
The latest AHDB Grain Market Report shows UK feed wheat futures for May-25 at £192.95/t, a considerable gain on last week’s close. The Nov-24 contract, which finishes trading today, rose similarly to £180.05/t. The new Nov-25 contract sits at £189.85/t. The gains might have been greater but the strength of sterling limited the rises in old crop prices.
Russia has responded to US President Biden authorising the use of the Army Tactical Missile System (Atacms) for Ukraine to strike into Russia with several attacks of its own. The escalation one reason for buying by speculative traders.
Rapeseed prices dip
Paris rapeseed futures lost due to continued falls in palm and soya oil prices. The May-25 contract fell €524.75/t (approx. £437.50/t), while the Nov-25 contract fell €3.25/t to settle at €480.25/t (approx. £400.50/t).
Over recent weeks, rapeseed prices have been supported by various factors and prices are above where they started the month.
Early Bird Survey data highlights OSR decline
AHDB’s provisional Early bird Survey suggests the overall wheat area is forecast to rise by 5%, all from within the winter crop. The spring wheat area is expected to nearly halve after last year’s rise due to the wet conditions. Though the crop accounts for a tiny proportion of the total wheat area, at 1,613 Kh it remains below the 2019 – 2023 average.
At 1,084 Kha the barley estimate would mean the smallest UK area since 2014. The spring crop is predicted to fall by 13% to 704 Kha, although it would still be above 2022 and 2023 levels.
A small rise is projected for Oats, the area estimated at 189 Kha.
It is no surprise to see another fall in the oilseed rape planted area. Forecast to decline by 17% it would reduce the oilseed rape area to its lowest area in the UK for 42 years. The final area could be even lower depending on damage from pests, particularly cabbage stem flea beetles, and weather conditions between now and harvest.
