Despite competitive Black Sea grain, grain markets are largely unchanged since Friday’s close (20/09).
The latest AHDB Grain Market Report shows UK feed wheat futures (Nov-24) at £182.00/t, the May-25 contract currently at £196.25/t. Both are a little down over the week.
It’s down to the same balancing pressures. Competitive Black Sea exports being offset by weather impacts. The 24/25 Russian wheat crop is off to the slowest start in 11 years due to agency SovEcon with drought conditions delaying planting.
Rapeseed fared better. Nov-24 Paris rapeseed futures stand at €480.00/t the May-25 contract at €487.00/t, both gaining over the same period.
European rapeseed prices followed support in the US soyabean market on the back of dryness in Brazil. More dry and warm weather is due over the Mato Grosso, the key soyabean producing region, in the coming week.
Final 2023/24 balance sheets published
Earlier this week, the final balance sheets for the 2023/24 season were published. Key points are;
- Domestic consumption remained historically strong throughout the 2023/24 season, though heavy imports saw end of season stocks at their largest this century.*
- The barley supply and demand balance remained tighter than average in 2023/24. As with wheat, heavy imports and minimal exports leave historically heavy ending stocks.*
- With a firm pace towards the end of the season, imports of maize were above the five-year average in the 2023/24 season, with domestic consumption at its highest since 2020/21.
- Despite reduced domestic consumption, a smaller oat crop and minimal imports, combined with a firmer than average export pace, leads to the smallest ending stocks since 2019/20.
*Please note that due to the unusual nature of the 2023/24 season and subsequent data gaps, an adjusted commercial end-season stocks figure has been used in the wheat and barley balance sheets. In order to avoid any future misreporting in the MPC (merchants, ports and co-ops) figures specifically, a review of this survey will be carried out, and actions implemented before the release of the February 2025 stocks data.
