Grain prices have recovered slightly, following the lows of recent weeks.
The current AHDB Grain Market Report shows UK Nov-25 feed wheat futures at £186.70/t, the new May-26 contract has built over the week and stands at £196.05/t.
Short covering has supported prices but so has a concern over deteriorating crop conditions. Following an improvement in US winter wheat condition earlier in the month, the USDA has surprisingly rated the crop down, its latest report suggesting that now 52% of the crop was rated as good or excellent as at 19 May.
The fall in crop conditions in the US is reflected elsewhere, traders now concerned over crop conditions in Russia, China and Northern Europe.
This includes the UK, where March and April rainfall was just 77.3 mm, the lowest volume for those months since 1974 according to Met Office data. Some areas received much less and May has remained extremely dry in many parts.
AHDB senior analyst Helen Plant says the conditions are a cause for concern but that it could change. “In 2022, a drier spring was followed by below usual rainfall in June. However, despite lower rainfall, prospects remained strong through to the end of the month.
In that year, the proportion of winter wheat in good/excellent condition remained over 80% from the end of March to the end of June. However, hot, dry weather into July negatively impacted crop conditions, particularly in the east of the country, and reduced yields for crops on lighter land.
Protein contents were below average as the dry conditions limited nitrogen uptake. For example, in AHDB’s Cereal Quality Survey UKFM group1 varieties averaged 12.6% compared to 13.0% on average in the preceding three years.
Nov-25 Paris rapeseed futures are largely unchanged, sitting a fraction higher than last week’s close at €488.50. Again, weather concerns are a factor supporting the wider oilseeds complex.
