Although this season has seen a recovery in the UK wheat crop, it isn’t expected to bounce back to average levels suggests the AHDB.
Combining the Early Bird Survey-projected UK wheat area with an average yield over the last five years (2020–2024), the UK crop would reach 12.5 Mt in 2025. While this would be up by 12% on last season, it is still well below the five-year average of 13.9 Mt.
It could see the UK reliance on imported grains continue. With the 2024 UK cereal harvest 20% down, wheat imports are forecast to rise to 2.75 million tonnes in 2024/25, a 13% increase from 2023/24.
Olivia Bonser, AHDB Senior Market Analyst (Cereals & Oilseeds), says: “2024 was a challenging year for UK cereal and oilseed producers, with a marked decline in both wheat and oilseed rape production. This smaller harvest is leading to an increased reliance on imports, which comes at a time of global market uncertainty. While there are signs of potential recovery in 2025, particularly for wheat, the decline in domestic production in 2024, coupled with competitive import prices, is creating a challenging environment for farmers.
“While global prices may rise in the short term due to tight supply, the longer-term outlook remains unpredictable, with global weather patterns, trade dynamics, and competition from major exporters like Brazil and the EU all influencing market conditions. It’s crucial that UK farmers keep an eye on markets, as the coming months are key for the development of the 2025 Northern Hemisphere crops, and we could see some fluctuations in prices.”
